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February 25, 2021
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BIEC: we can expect a jump in inflation –

Representatives of companies signal their intention to raise prices for their products. Analysts studied as many as 22 industries. Representatives of as many as 20 of them declare that they will raise prices in the next few months. The information was provided by Biuro Inwestycji i Cykli Ekonomicznych (BIEC). This is the effect of, among others more expensive raw materials.

RUN: we may face higher inflation

Importantly, the increases are declared by industries that offer processed raw materials necessary for further production. So it is about: oil processing, metal production or production of transport equipment. “The increase in these prices means higher production costs in industries producing consumer goods, which will directly translate into an increase in the CPI index, commonly known as inflation. We already observe a tendency among producers to increase prices, which is reflected in the data on PPI producer prices “ BIEC analysts added.

The Future Inflation Index (WPI), which was developed by BIEC, helps in forecasting price movements. In February 2021, it rose to 76 points, almost 1 point from last month’s level.

“This is the seventh month of systematic growth of the index. In subsequent editions of the index, there are more and more components that may contribute in the coming months to an increase in the prices of consumer goods and services CPI “- added BIEC.

Interestingly, so far lockdowns have suppressed price jumps. Until November last year the average annual growth of producer prices was even negative. “In the coming months, producer prices will most likely rise, regardless of the state of the economy freezing” – we read.

NBP policy

BIEC experts believe that the policy of the NBP is also influencing the price increase. Our central bank has already openly said that it wants to weaken the zloty, which is to strengthen exports.

The commodity price index published by the IMF has been growing at a moderate pace since July this year. and now exceeds the values ​​from a year ago, when there was no global pandemic yet. First of all, energy resources and metals are becoming more expensive, but also food resources are becoming more expensive, including the highest increase in prices of sugar, cereals and vegetable oils “- analysts wrote in the report.

Today, concerns about higher inflation are also visible at the consumer level. “We have been observing the intensification of consumer inflation expectations since October last year. Currently, nearly 91 percent. of surveyed household representatives expect prices to rise in the coming months. For comparison, a month ago there were 88 percent of them, and a year ago – 74 percent. “ – written.

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