Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead predicted at least a 50% chance that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $ 115,000 in August next year
In a recent letter to investors, Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead said: “If the new Bitcoin offering is cut in half (with halving on May 12), with everything else being equal, the price is expected to rise.”
The crypto entrepreneur analyzed Bitcoin’s accumulated performance in relation to gold and oil, among others. He predicts that BTC will continue to gain over other asset classes after halving, as the market depreciates from stimulus packages.
Morehead noted that halving has historically driven a bull run, due to real or perceived shortages of supply.
“Post-halving rallies have an average of 446 days – from halving to the peak of the discharge cycle. In this cycle, the market passed 514 days before halving. If history were to repeat itself, Bitcoin would peak in August 2021 ”, he explained, giving the forecast“ more than 50% chances ”.
“The second halving reduced the offer by only a third than the first. Very interesting, it had exactly a third of the impact on the price. “
Extrapolating this relationship to 2020, Morehead wrote:
“The reduction in supply is only 40% greater than in 2016. If this relationship continues, it would imply about 40% of the price boost – Bitcoin would reach $ 115,212”
The founder of Pantera Capital noted that the Covid-19 stimulus will reduce the value of paper money and inflate the price of other fixed-volume assets, such as gold and BTC.
Morehead also said that BTC has surpassed gold since March 25, when it delivered another letter to investors, up more than 32%. “Gold has been around for 5,000 years, so it won’t disappear overnight. But it’s certainly past its expiration date, ”he said.
He was less kind to oil as an asset class. People had to pay $ 20 a barrel for someone to get it out of their hands as prices fell.
Bitcoin was born during the previous recession and Morehead sees the maturity of the asset near, with its compound annual growth rate of 209% over 9 years, recorded in the absence of a long-term correlation with stocks, bonds, oil and other asset classes.
Although the previous recession was in “V” with the initial growth registered, Morehead believes that the recession induced by the coronavirus is in “L”, as many companies are leaving irrevocably, the psychological effects of the pandemic are unprecedented and the sectors expect each other to resume operation.
Morehead also writes that it is “almost inevitable that this will be very positive for cryptocurrency prices”.