Bitcoin will have to increase 65% over the next five days to reach the $98,000 target set by PlanB’s Floor Model.
Plan B has admitted that its worst-case scenario in terms of BTC price movements is about to prove wrong for the first time. The analyst’s model predicted a $98,000 price for the asset at the end of November, which seems somewhat unlikely as of now.
CryptoPotato previously reported the worst-case accuracy of Plan B (Floor Model), as he referred to, which is separate from the popular stock-to-flow model. However, he was quite resistant in the past, having remained in place for several consecutive months.
The prediction model saw bitcoin closing at $47,000 at the end of August and dropping to $43,000 at the end of September, which it did. October was also close, with BTC ending the month at $61,000, while Plan B forecast $63,000. The anonymous analyst rated this small difference as a “rounding error“, what was “good enough” for him.
During a podcast A recent interview with the author of Bitcoin Standard – Saifedean Ammous – PlanB highlighted the difference between the S2F model and its “worst scenario”. Rather than BTC’s production and demand, the latter is more of a technical model, based primarily on the 200-day moving average.
Wrong for the first time?
Given the precision of the model mentioned above, many expected the expected November price of US$98,000 to arrive as well. Furthermore, the current month is arguably the best in BTC history, as the asset has produced some of its most impressive gains in previous years.
November also started on a high as in the first few weeks, the cryptocurrency soared to its last all-time high of $69,000. However, the landscape changed after that, and the BTC is now well below $60,000.
As such, bitcoin needs to increase its dollar value by 65% to get to $98,000 from its current price level. Bearing in mind that it is less than a week to the end of November, Plan B conceded that this task could be too high, even for the primary cryptocurrency.
However, the analyst highlighted that the stock-to-flow model “was not affected” and in fact is on its way to $100,000.