Bitcoin’s third halving is expected to take place on May 12, 2020
Ah the halving! Involved in a bull run mystique, it is very common to hear people talking about how Bitcoin will rise after halving. Or that the proximity of halving is a time of great optimism, which makes the price “take off”. As seeing the future is quite difficult, can we look at the past to confirm this theory that halving equals high? After all, you know / remember how the BTC price behaved before Bitcoin’s second halving.
Well, let’s go back to June 2016, the month before Bitcoin’s second halving (the event itself took place on July 10th). At the time (June 2016), we are still talking about Bitcoin that is not widespread in the popular imagination, practically forgotten by the mainstream media.
If you wanted to buy BTC during this period, you would have to pay $ 534 per unit on the first day of the month mentioned. In the middle of the month, on the 16th, the same unit could reach $ 771. From this we have already realized that the volatility of the BTC is old known.
Back in time, on May 20, 2016, Bitcoin was traded for $ 437. So taking the figures cited by reference, from May 20, 2016 to June 16 of the same year, Bitcoin rose $ 334, or 76% up in less than a month.
That is, in the two months leading up to halving, Bitcoin went up 76% upwards. By the date of the event itself, the price had already dropped to $ 647.
Graph by: TradingView
If we rely exclusively on the last halving, it would already be possible to say that yes, halving makes Bitcoin rise on the eve of the event. However, if we bring it to the current scenario, would this claim be confirmed? The short answer is no.
The next halving should take place on May 12th, so if we go back exactly 2 months, we will arrive on March 12th, the day of the big fall of BTC in 2020. As this date is something out of the curve and does not help us, use the previous day . On March 11, BTC traded for approximately $ 7,900. Since then (with 12 days left for halving), the record high is $ 8988.
This two-month move would bring us a small bullish variation, which would not justify the statement “Bitcoin rises on the eve of halving” (remembering that we are relying exclusively on the last halving, much more documented and followed than the first).
Graph by: TradingView
Of course, this is just a mental exercise about halving, but it is clear that such Bitcoin “standards” are not as certain as some people claim. It is definitely not recommended to buy Bitcoin based solely on the premise that halving will raise the price.
* This text is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Study and invest wisely, always!