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September 23, 2020
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GUS: inflation is falling but still above the NBP inflation target Blocksats

Inflation in May was only 2.9 percent. on an annual basis. This is the preliminary data of the Central Statistical Office. This is the lowest level of this indicator in 2020.

Expectations vs. reality

This is optimistic information, because analysts expected a decline in annual inflation to 3 percent. against 3.4 percent in April, 4.6 percent in March and 4.7 percent in February. In the last month this result was the highest since November 2011. In turn, now it is falling to the lowest level since the beginning of the year. We are actually returning to the state from the second half of 2019.

In turn, on a monthly basis, inflation in May amounted to -0.2 percent. against -0.1 percent in April.

CSO and inflation: detailed data

Let’s remember, however, that it is called “Quick respect”. The final data will probably change, though it is doubtful that it would be a dramatic jump or a decrease in value.

However, we must state from pessimistic information that a large increase in the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages was recorded (up by 6.1%). Energy carriers went up by 5.2 percent, while fuels got cheaper by 23.4 percent. Compared to last month, the increase in food and non-alcoholic beverages prices was 0.1 percent. In turn, fuels got cheaper by 4.5 percent and energy carriers by 0.1 percent.

“It is worth adding that inflation in 2020 is calculated according to a weighting system based on surveys on household budgets in 2019. The previous CSO update was made in March 2020. The current” pandemic “structure of expenditure of Poles, however, is very different from that of last year – expenditure in some categories (transport, clothing and footwear, recreation and culture, restaurants and hotels) has fallen sharply, while in others (food, health) it has clearly increased “

– translates to bankier.pl Michał Żuławiński.

Another disturbing information is, however, that the April result is still higher than the inflation target of the National Bank of Poland, but at the same time – and this light in the tunnel – is within the accepted band of deviations. The NBP defines it as a 2.5% increase in CPI inflation. with an acceptable deviation of one percentage point both ways.

Remember, however, that we still have no reason to open champagne …

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