According to experts from traditional markets, chances are not the best
Bitcoin traders are clearly making a difficult decision as to whether they should go for longs or shorts. The price of BTC has been inert for the past 2 days and is fluctuating between $ 9,464 and $ 9,950.
It seems that Bitcoin’s recent halving has left a lot of uncertainty in the market and traders are not confident whether BTC is down or up now. The daily trading volume fell last week, indicating that a major change will happen soon. At BitMEX, the number of longs is still dominating the shorts, in the same way, Bitfinex longs are 80% vs 20% of the shorts and even Binance has positions a little more for the longs than the shorts.
This indicates that most traders are ready to take it. However, this can also be fuel for a bear break, leading to a huge sale of longs.
Options market says Bitcoin has only 9% chance of reaching a new ATH (all-time high)
According to recent ‘SKEW’ statistics, the options market, a contract-traded derivatives market, is showing a small 9% probability that Bitcoin will reach $ 20k or more in late 2020. It also shows that most of contracts is below a 40% chance when it comes to BTC hitting $ 10,000 again.
#bitcoin at new all-time-high (> $ 20k) at the end of the 2020?
Options market say 9% probability, what do you think? pic.twitter.com/1L6hlo8k5A
– skew (@skewdotcom) May 19, 2020
“New Bitcoin ATH (> $ 20,000) at the end of 2020?
The options market says there is only a 9% probability. ”
At the same time, it seems that the open interest in BTC options continues to grow exponentially and has been growing over the past month. This is not necessarily optimistic, as it only indicates that there is a lot of liquidity; however, it is still a good metric for Bitcoin.
Some analysts, however, are much more optimistic about Bitcoin, for example, Tuur Demeester, the founder of Adamant Capital recently declared that he believes Bitcoin will reach $ 50,000 soon and explained why. He basically blames governments around the world for printing money, and he says he doesn’t think BTC will touch $ 6,000 again.
“I mean, I think a $ 50,000 price target is not insane, especially considering how crazy printing money is”
The amount of money printed in 2020 is now close to 11% of all U.S. GDP in 2019.