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September 25, 2020
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Inflation in June higher than expected by economists Blocksats

Inflation increased again in June and is still above the NBP inflation target. Prices of consumer goods and services in the past month increased by as much as 3.3 percent compared to the same month last year. This is a new estimate from the Central Statistical Office.

Inflation in June: a big surprise

Economists expected CPI inflation at 2.8%. However, it turns out that a sharp rise in prices is not behind us at all.

Inflation is rising not only through fuels but apparently also through the base categories (…) Inflation is probably additionally driven by cost factors (“covidowe” subsidies for services rendered) which are becoming more widespread, because companies have noticed that they are easily paid by consumers out of concern for their own safety (…) We also bet expensive holidays in country. We already know that there will be no alternative, so the price adjustment could have been made in June – mBank economists wrote in the morning commentary.

However, let us remind you that the data published today are so-called quick respect. This means that the final calculations may still vary, but it is doubtful that this would be a hesitant fluctuation in either side. Final inflation data in June will not be announced until mid-July. Then we will find out which groups of goods and services were the most expensive.

More expensive food

I already know, however, that the problem of the Polish economy is still more expensive food (+ 5.8% yoy) and rising energy prices (+ 5.1% yoy). Many services, in turn, become more expensive, because their contractors must probably “take back” the lockdowon. It is also, for example, subsidies from dentists or hairdressers who have to disinfect workplaces after each service.

“It is worth adding that inflation in 2020 is calculated according to a weighting system based on surveys of household budgets in 2019. The previous CSO update was made in March 2020. The current” pandemic “structure of expenditure of Poles, however, is very different from that from last year – expenditure in some categories (transport, clothing and footwear, recreation and culture, restaurants and hotels) has fallen sharply, while in others (food, health) it has clearly increased “

– he adds bankier.pl.

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