The NBP conducted its sentiment survey. Asked analytical centers about what average annual CPI inflation they expect in 2020.
NBP and inflation survey
“The aggregate distribution of CPI inflation forecasts suggests 85 percent probability average annual inflation in 2020 will run above the NBP inflation target. The central scenario is 3.3%, and the 50% probability limits are 2.8%. and 3.8 percent For 2021, the central scenario (equal to 2.3%) is not well outlined: values in the range of 1.3-3.2% are equally likely, which coincides with the 50% probability range “
– it was written in the document summarizing the study.
“In turn, for inflation forecasts for 2022, values between 2.3 percent seem most likely. and 3.3%, with typical scenarios also allowing inflation to fall slightly below this range (the 50% probability range is 1.6-3.3%). The central scenario for CPI inflation in 2022 is 2.5 percent. “
Economists also expect a decline in Poland’s GDP growth in 2020 by 3.6 percent, but in 2021 a rebound by 3.7 percent.
“respondents experts are sure that there will be a recession in Poland in 2020 (probability equal to 92%). According to typical scenarios, i.e. contained in the 50% probability range, the depth of recession can be estimated at -5.0%. to -1.8 percent. In 2021, a GDP growth rate of 2.1 percent can be expected. and 5.2 percent while in 2022 – between 1.9 percent and 4.2 percent (these are the limits of the 50% probability range “
– summarized the NBP.
“Central scenarios for individual years are -3.6 percent. for 2020, 3.7% for 2021 and 3.1 percent for 2022, but they are poorly outlined. Recession scenarios in 2021-2022 are not completely excluded, but the probability of a negative GDP growth rate remains very low, equal to 11%. in 2021 and 9% in 2022 “
In turn, interest rates in Poland in 2020-2021 are expected to remain unchanged according to experts interviewed by the NBP (the central forecast for 2021 is 0.16 percent).
The summer round of the NBP Macroeconomic Survey lasted from June 15 and July 3 this year. It was attended by 22 experts representing various financial and scientific institutions, trade union and organization of entrepreneurs.