The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has bad news for us. IN “Inflation Report” it was reported that this year Poland’s GDP would fall by 5.4 percent Then Poland will achieve economic growth of 4.9 percent. in 2021 and 3.7 percent in 2022, however, we are facing quite high unemployment and a fall in wages. In addition, savers should not keep funds on deposits.
NBP and the crisis
It is true that our central bank believes that as the individual restrictions related to the pandemic are lifted, the global economy will recover, but this does not mean a V-shaped rebound.
The above will make it impossible to grow slower than before the crisis, “Changes in the behavior of the population and the increase in the importance of the precautionary motive in decisions about the choice between consumption and saving.”
“Households and enterprises will also refrain from undertaking long-term investment projects, which will only be caused by a slight improvement in their financial situation compared to the period before the crisis and persistent increased uncertainty”
– we read in the “Inflation Report”.
Leap of unemployment
The NBP also predicts that the unemployment rate will amount to as much as 5 percent. at the end of this year, but then it will rise to 5.6 percent at the end of 2021, and will fall to 5.2 percent at the end of 2022
Wages will also fall and although this ratio will later reflect, its growth will not be as high as it was before.
“The repeal of further restrictions, the gradual recovery of economic activity and an increase in labor productivity will cause that from the second half of this year. wages will start rising again, though their year-on-year dynamics will remain close to zero until the beginning of 2021. In the following years, this trend will continue, but the average wage growth rate will not reach the level from 2018-2019 due to the increased level of unemployment “
– forecasts NBP.
Deposits not for conscious savers
The NBP also has some kind of fatal news for people who want to save safely. In the opinion of Pekao bank analysts “The pessimistic NBP projection in practice excludes normalization of interest rates in the next 2-3 years.”
Today, many banks offer deposits at, for example, 0.01 percent. This will probably not change quickly. People with large capital will start looking for alternative investments …