Economists are threatening that the upcoming economic crisis in Russia will be the greatest since Vladimir Putin has ruled the country for 20 years. Does this mean the final blow to this power?
Russia and its problems
Let’s start with the epidemic stage. Currently, nearly 300,000 coronavirus infections have been reported in Russia. The credibility of these data is, however, questioned by foreign media, including by the Financial Times and the New York Times. Apparently, these numbers may be higher. And so, assuming that they are real, our eastern neighbor is the second country in the world where there is the most cases (after the USA). The number of victims of the virus is estimated by the Russians at “only” 2,837. This is unrealistic.
“The disclosure of coronavirus statistics in Russia is taking place reluctantly and among the adventures “
– note “Vedomosti”, which, however, add that the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has already demanded dementia from “NYT” and “FT.” “
Statistics are – according to the Russian daily – “State management symbol”. It is added that before the pandemic, almost no one paid any attention to death data, “but now it turns out that the doctors who give their lives for the health of the Russians are badly affecting the international reputation of a great state. “
Economists have reason to believe that the power will do even worse in the sphere of the economy, especially in the face of the freezing of economic life.
GDP in the second quarter may fall to apocalyptic levels. RBC.ru informs that according to calculations made on the basis of data provided by the Ministry of Finance, in April 2020 the nominal value of Russia’s GDP was as much as nearly 28 percent. lower than in April 2019.
Where do these falls come from? Much lower oil prices may account for one-third, while the freezing of the economy for two-thirds.
We may not see the full scale of the problem today. Just like in Poland, the effects of lockdown will be visible later than in Western Europe. Let us remember that the Russian authorities decided to freeze the economy only at the end of March. At that time, it was ordered to close shops, restaurants, tourist attractions, etc. The effects of this decision – falling demand, rising unemployment – will only be visible for some time.