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September 27, 2020
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The positive GDP reading will not follow until 2021 – Blocksats

Next positive reading GDP We will see Poland in 2021 – experts say. And only when the coronavirus epidemic finally stops, they add.

It was better now

The Polish economy has been developing at least well in recent years. Unfortunately, nothing lasts forever. Worse, we’re not talking about a slowdown today, but about a recession and possibly the biggest crisis in 90 years (the Bank of England has even suggested that since the 18th century).

According to a preliminary CSO estimate, Poland’s GDP increased by 1.9% in the first quarter. compared to the same quarter a year ago. In the last quarter of 2019, however, we saw a jump of 3.2 percent. There is a slowdown.

It is possible that the worst is yet to come. Markets are a system of connected vessels. Today, our country is not bad compared to Western European countries, but experts from Bank Pekao say that there is nothing to enjoy. This may be due to the fact that the Polish economy was frozen later than some Western European countries. It is worth looking at the phenomenon of Romania.

Romania’s GDP growth in the first quarter is due to fiscal stimulation that began even before Covid-19. Other countries of the region (except Hungary) have plunged into dependence on the automotive sector – they add.

Anyway, it is worth adding that Romania has become famous in recent years for a completely different policy than the Polish government – it mainly reduced taxes, which stimulated the entrepreneurship of its citizens.

Accurate reading of GDP in May

At the end of May, we are to know the exact GDP reading. It’s about its structure.

– In the GDP structure in the first quarter we will probably see, above all, a strong slowdown in household consumption – assesses in the pages money.pl Monika Kurtek, chief economist at Bank Pocztowy, who also believes that the first quarter was probably the last this year with a positive GDP reading. We are to return to positive news in this field in 2021.

According to the economist, however, investments were still in the black for the time being, which seems to indicate the dynamics of construction and assembly production during the period considered. This turned out to be a positive surprise. Net exports probably also had a positive contribution to GDP growth.

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